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What the Heads of Naylor Love, Hawkins and Dominion Said at BuildNZ 2026 — and What It Means for Your Auckland Business



I spent Wednesday afternoon in the Knowledge Theatre at BuildNZ 2026, Auckland Showgrounds, for the Hubexo Construction League panel at The Future of Housing Summit — the people who run three of New Zealand's biggest construction firms, on one stage, talking plainly about where the market goes next. On the panel: Bruno Goedeke of Naylor Love, Craig Treloar of Hawkins, and Kerin Russell-Smith of Dominion Constructors, alongside Ankit Sharma of Master Builders. I advise owner-managed businesses for a living, not only builders, and I go to these things because the heads of the largest firms in a sector are paid to see round corners the rest of us cannot. Most of what they said applies well beyond construction. What follows comes from my notes in the room; where I quote, I am reporting what I heard, and the paraphrases are mine.

Building got slower, not faster — and that is structural

The line that set the tone came from Hawkins' Craig Treloar. In 2010, he told the room, you could build fast in this country. Fifteen years on, the same building takes longer — seismic requirements, fire engineering and the accumulated weight of compliance have made every stage more complex. Nobody on the stage argued. The business point underneath it is the one owners in every sector keep missing: this is structural, not cyclical. Your cost to deliver the same output is not high because of one bad year; it is high because the rules changed and stayed changed. Any plan built on it 'coming back' is built on a thing that is not going to happen. The firms that adjust their pricing, their scoping and their timelines to the new reality stop bleeding on every job; the ones waiting for the old speed to return keep quoting a world that no longer exists.

Where the work actually is

Ask a room of CEOs where the pipeline sits and you get a straight answer, because they have already bet on it. The direction was government and institutional work — health, education, defence, justice and airports named as the pillars. Dominion Constructors' Kerin Russell-Smith made the more local, and more useful, point: Auckland's medium-density intensification is running ahead of the infrastructure underneath it, and the gap between zoned capacity and serviced land is where a lot of housing ambition will stall. If you supply, sub-contract to, or sell anywhere near construction, that ten-minute stretch was the market map for the next three years. The general lesson for any owner is the same: demand is always moving somewhere. The firms that win read the move while it is still a forecast and reposition early, rather than reacting once it is a headline everyone else has already seen.

Hire for attitude — and take the AI point seriously

Every panellist landed on the same answer to the capability question, which was itself the story: invest in people, and interview for attitude and cultural fit before skills. For complex work, experience, skill and teamwork carry more weight than any tool on site, because complexity punishes a weak team faster than it punishes weak technology. Downstairs on the exhibition floor, the other half of the story — drones, 3D cameras, time-lapse rigs, back-office automation, and every vendor pitch reduced to one sentence: solve a problem, save time. The buyers walking those aisles were not shopping for transformation. They wanted hours back. Ankit Sharma, from Master Builders, bridged the two worlds with the most quotable line of the afternoon: AI will have "a bigger impact than they realise". From the body that certifies a large share of the country's builders, that is not a vendor talking his book. Read it as a signal for your own firm, whatever you make or sell: the owners who buy back hours this year are the ones who will have the capacity to grow when demand turns.

The warning I would have paid twice to hear

Then came the sentence I went home thinking about. Builders, Naylor Love's Bruno Goedeke warned, keep accepting risk on projects that is not theirs to carry. Do not become the insurance company for your client. He was speaking to head contractors about the clients above them, but the logic cascades all the way down — and it is not a construction problem, it is a business problem. Every owner-managed firm I work with has a version of it: the supplier carrying 60-day terms so a larger customer can carry 30; the service business wearing scope creep because the contract never defined 'done'; the sub-contractor signing wide indemnities and retentions tied to someone else's completion date. Risk that is priced into nobody's margin does not disappear. It settles on the smallest balance sheet in the chain, which is usually yours. The most valuable question you can ask about your own business this quarter: what am I insuring, for whom, at no charge, without ever having agreed to?

What this means if you are nowhere near a building site

Three people who run firms building New Zealand's largest projects agreed on this much: work is moving toward government-backed sectors, delivery is structurally harder than it was fifteen years ago, and the biggest exposure in the industry is not technology or labour — it is badly allocated risk. Strip out the hard hats and that is a description of almost every sector under pressure right now. The businesses that come through hold three disciplines at once: they read where demand is going and reposition early, they protect their best people and buy back time, and they refuse to carry risk they were never paid to hold. For owners actually inside the construction contraction, I set out the survival moves in more detail in this piece on getting a trades business through the bottom of the cycle.

Three things worth an hour this quarter

  • Name the demand shift that affects you. Where is your market quietly moving — sector, customer type, buying trigger — and what share of next year's revenue should come from where it is going rather than where it has been?

  • List where you carry risk you were not paid for. Terms, indemnities, undefined scope, retentions, personal guarantees. Put a rough dollar figure beside each, then decide which one you renegotiate first.

  • Pick one task to automate and buy the hours back. The exhibitors at BuildNZ were right about one thing: the win on offer is time, and time is the constraint on everything you want to do next.

The advisor's view

None of what the panel said was complicated. Read where demand is moving and follow it early; protect your best people and buy back time; refuse to carry risk that belongs to someone else. What it takes is the discipline to run all three while everyone around you is waiting for the cycle to turn — and the honesty to look at your own contracts, your own pricing and your own team before the market forces the question. The heads of the biggest firms in the country were, in the end, describing good management. The advantage is that most of their competitors were downstairs looking at drones.

Strategize Auckland advises owner-managed businesses between $500k and $50m turnover — including the construction, trades and supply firms living the panel's forecast in real time. If you want an outside read on where your risk sits and where your demand is moving, book a session with Steven Parker. Roughly half of our engagements begin with Regional Business Partners co-funding.

Reported from the Hubexo Construction League panel at The Future of Housing Summit, BuildNZ 2026, Knowledge Theatre, Auckland Showgrounds, 15 July 2026. Panellists: Bruno Goedeke (Naylor Love), Craig Treloar (Hawkins), Kerin Russell-Smith (Dominion Constructors) and Ankit Sharma (Master Builders). Quotes and paraphrases are from notes taken in the room.

 
 
 

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