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What the NZGDA 2025 Survey Means for Your Studio Runway

May 31
4 min read

In short: The NZGDA 2025 survey is the best news the sector has had in years — $759.6m in revenue, up 38.6%, 1,418 full-time roles, and a path toward $2bn by the end of the decade. But a healthy sector is a tailwind, not a safety net. The studios that scale through a boom are the ones that read the numbers for what they mean at the studio level: rising talent costs, a globally exposed revenue base, and a rebate doing quiet heavy lifting. Here is what the headline figures actually mean for your runway.

Key takeaways

  • A record sector does not mean your studio is safe. 95% of that revenue is export — you compete in a global market that grew around 2% and shed jobs.

  • The talent shortage is a cost warning. Programmers are roughly 30% short. Your biggest expense line is under wage pressure, and a three-year build feels it.

  • The rebate is propping up retention sector-wide — but it is retrospective. Build it into the forecast as a receivable; do not spend it before it lands.

  • A boom widens the gap between disciplined studios and the rest. Record numbers are a reason to tighten the forecast, not relax it.

What the survey says

The New Zealand Game Developers Association reported the sector at $759.6m in pre-tax revenue for 2024/25, up 38.6% on the prior year, with 95% earned offshore and 1,418 full-time roles (up 29.2%). It hit its $1bn target two years early and expects to double it by the end of the decade — while the global games industry grew around 2% and cut jobs. (NZGDA industry survey). By any measure, a standout result for a small country.

That is the sector. Your studio is not the sector. Here is how each headline reads at the level of a single founder trying to make the runway stretch to launch.

What each number means for your studio

"$759.6m, up 38.6%" — momentum, and more competition

Capital and attention are flowing into NZ games. That is genuinely good. It also pulls in new entrants and bids up the price of the people you need. Read sector growth as a rising tide, not as your growth — your runway is still decided by your own burn and your own revenue date, neither of which moved because the sector had a strong year.

"95% export" — your revenue base is global, not local

The NZ scene is booming, but you do not sell to the NZ scene — you sell to a global market that grew around 2% and shed jobs over the same period. Model your back-end against that global reality, not the local headline. Optimism about the sector is not a forecast.

"1,418 roles, programmers ~30% short" — wage pressure on your largest cost

People are the bulk of a studio budget, and a boom with a talent shortage inflates salaries. A build costed at today rates can cost materially more by year two as wages climb and you compete for the same scarce programmers. Put wage inflation into the burn assumptions; do not freeze year-one salaries across a three-year plan.

"The rebate is doing the heavy lifting on retention" — true, but it is a receivable

The GDSR is keeping teams together across the sector — a real lifeline. But it is retrospective: it rewards spend you have already made, and it pays out after the year closes. Treat it as a receivable with a timing risk, not as capital sitting in the bank. A rebate you have mentally spent is a hole you have already dug.

The runway implication

A rising tide lifts the disciplined and exposes the rest. In a downturn, weak financial management is obvious and everyone tightens. In a boom, it hides — revenue forecasts look generous, hiring feels safe, and the rebate flatters the balance. Then the build runs long, wages climb, the global back-end disappoints, and the studio that read the boom as permission to relax is the one that runs out before launch.

The studios that pull ahead through a strong cycle are the ones that treat record numbers as a reason to be more precise, not less.

What to do with this

  1. Run a rolling forecast. A 13-week working-capital view that updates as reality moves, so the crunch shows up months out while you still have options.

  2. Cost the build at future wages. Assume the talent market stays tight; budget salary inflation into years two and three.

  3. Treat the rebate as a timed receivable. Put it in the forecast on its realistic payment date, and do not deploy it before it arrives.

  4. Scale headcount off contracts, not optimism. Hire against committed funding and milestones, not against how good the sector looks this quarter.

Frequently asked questions

Is the NZ game development boom real?

Yes. The NZGDA survey puts the sector at $759.6m, up 38.6%, growing far faster than the global industry. (source). The growth is real — the point is that sector health and studio health are different questions.

Does a strong sector make it a safe time to start a studio?

It is a strong time to build, with capital, a rebate, and demand for NZ talent. But the studio-level discipline matters more in a boom, not less, because the risks are easier to ignore. Strong sector, same hard rules.

How does this connect to the GDSR rebate?

Closely — the rebate is one of the survey numbers doing the most work, and treating it correctly in the forecast is one of the highest-value financial moves a studio can make. We cover the mechanics in our GDSR guide.

Reading a strong sector and a nervous bank balance at the same time? That is the gap we work in. Start with a 15-minute call with Steven — by phone, no pitch, no obligation. Book at strategizeauckland.info/book-online or call 027 737 2858.

Written by Steven Parker, Principal, Strategize Auckland. Senior business advisory for Auckland and NZ businesses, including game studios. Level 1, 55 Corinthian Drive, Albany 0632. RBP-accredited. Figures per the NZGDA 2025 industry survey. Reviewed 31 May 2026.

 
 
 

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